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Friday, May 31, 2013

31 May 2013 - Trade and view updates

A very quick wrap-up on performance of trades from my previous post. I'll follow up this weekend with a longer post regarding views and thoughts.

I exited S&P at 1680, believing we were in for a correction. This duly occurred - initially spurred by Bernanke's Congress testimony.

Nikkei, which I had exited at 14800 anticipating a sharp correction, actually continued to steamroll up to almost 16000 before an extremely volatile week of trading has left it around the 13400 mark currently.

The 19th Jun 1.28 EURUSD puts have been fairly profitable so far as I have been able to trade the gamma on them, however I am still hoping for a break of 1.28 before expiry to counteract the theta I'm going to end up paying on them.

Hang-Seng/ASX continues to profit, peaking at a ratio of 4.6 (currently 4.57) up from entry ratio of 4.15. I see no reason why this trend should halt here, though it's worth noting that 4.6 has been roughly the average ratio since 2009.

Gold has been a manic ride. It certainly hasn't got anywhere near my initial targets as it continues to exhibit inverse correlation with stocks. I exited my position at 1380 via trailing stop, and until we resume the upward climb in stocks I'm reluctant to re-short this.

USDJPY looks like I called it to a tee, selling the 104 calls and having it reach a peak of 103.60ish before tumbling 3 figures. Unfortunately, I had put in a stop at 1.0350 which I then left on by accident as USDJPY fell, thus cutting the profits of the trade significantly. Lesson learned no. 1: don't bother hedging before the strike for short term options unless you have changed your fundamental view. Lesson learned no. 2: put a stop loss on your stop loss.

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