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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

24 April 2013 - Daily Thoughts

An update on my positions in the Nikkei and USDJPY. Both have performed very well this week. I have now taken profit on the Nikkei as I think there'll be a bit of consolidation here below the 14000 level and since the move from 13000 has essentially been a straight line up. I will be looking to reenter around 13550 for a move to 15000 which was my original long-term target.

USDJPY has exhibited very interesting price action over the last couple of days. It's got to within 11 pips of breaking the psychological 100 mark, but keeps getting rebuffed around 9980. From my observations and past experience this suggests there is a large barrier (and perhaps more than one) at 100 which is being protected by a bank or fund. For those who are confused about exactly what this entails, I'll talk about this a bit in the next post. In any case, I am still long with the targets of 100.50 or end of trading Friday remaining unchanged.

I have initiated a short of GBPUSD ahead of tomorrow's preliminary GDP data. I have sized this to half my typical position size since I'm not very convicted. Cable has been pretty much rangebound over the last week. Still, I think the r/r behooves me to put some money on the table.

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